Thursday, February 4, 2010

Risks in the EMU - You do not want to be a member of the debt club


A scatter plot of debt to GDP and fiscal deficit to GDP shows that there is an exclusive club of countries with both levels being higher than normal, Ireland, UK, Spain, and Greece. The red ink is growing and there do not seem to be easy solutions. Think of a state bail-out, only worse. There is not the same deep connection between the countries of the EU.

The scenarios as listed by Merrill Lynch are not very appealing and getting worse as the market reacts to the lack of action.

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