Sunday, June 14, 2009

Stats of the week

The KBW bank stock index is up 100% from the lows. What a change in bank expectations.

The mortgage application index has fallen from 1200 in March to just over 600 in the last three months. 30-year mortgages have moved up from 4.75% to over 5.5% during the same period. Refi's has been a great way of restoring broken balance sheets. The higher mortgages rates cannot be good for the housing market as we enter the key summer season.

$199 billion of TARP funds have been given to banks. $2 billion has been paid back. Another $68 billion is expected from banks which means 35% has been given back in less than nine months.

Is this good or bad? When you look ta write-downs and potential losses, it is hard to imagine that we are out of trouble. The IMF believes there will be %1.o64 trillion in losses. Banks have written-down $564 billion so far, so there still has to be another $500 billion to go. Banks have raised about $75 billion, so where will the rest of the money come from?

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