Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Confidence everywhere, but why?






Green shoots are delicate and can easily be destroyed, yet the green shoots are leading to growing confidence across many economic groups.

We have consumer confidence growing positive which may be the most important. The Conference Board consumer confidence number jumped the most in six years beating expectations and going form 39.2 to 54.9; however, you have to go back to 1992 to be at these same levels.

The Merrill Lynch fund manager survey shows a surge in bullishness with 7 of 10 investors predicting that the world economy will improve over the next 12 months. Cash holds have been cut from 4.9% to 4.3%.

The Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes are also showing improvement. The one year confidence numbers have turned positive as well as the buy on dips confidence indicator. The valuation confidence indicator as well as the crash confidence numbers are showing more optimism.

Let's hope that this is well placed.

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