Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Is something positve going on out there? Consumer confidence up; Richmond manufacturing index up


More good news for the slowdown of the slowdown story. Could it be green shoots!

Consumer confidence is higher with the biggest gain since Nov 2005 and the highest level since November of last year. Confidence is still poor, but this is a start. Note that during recessions the confidence numbers become more volatile as consumer move more quickly between positive and negative views.

We also got less negative news form the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index survey with a nice move up. It is still in negative territory but it provides us with some idea that business is moving

The reaction in the markets is a little muted with the dollar index in a tight range. The fixed income futures saw a rally in 2-year Treasuries while the long-end has not changed its trend lower.

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