CBO forecasts are good predictors

The Congressional Budget Office produced their economic forecasting record this month and compared its numbers with the Administration and Blue Chip Consensus from 1982 to the present. When looking at their numbers, you see an organization that does a good job of forecasting relative to the other alternatives. In fact, it is impressive that they are willing to do the self-evaluation of comparing their forecasts with other alternatives in an easy to read document. How many banks provide their forecasting record over two decades?

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/87xx/doc8713/11-14-Forecasting.pdf

While there are still errors in their forecasting especially when there are business cycle turning points and unique price shocks, the CBO does a very professional job of calling the economy and should be given equal weight to private forecasters. The CBO is worth following.