Wet streets cause rain problem - the need for causal thinking

The "wet streets cause rain" problems, and the need for causal thinking. Reading the news causes noise in thinking about markets because newspapers can get causality wrong. If "A"  happens in the news, then that must have caused "B". Or, if I see the event "A", it is likely to result in "B", not because of past history, but just because they happen at the same time. It is vital to get the causality right before the narrative. Narrative can be easily written when you accept correlation as the driver, not causality. Causality is connected with what is probable by what may have happened in the past. 

Causality provides constraints on thinking. It can lead us to conclude that we don't know the reason for some events. It is harder to write news stories when you are forced to use reason and causality. It is harder to be an investor if you are constrained by the limits of what is possible. If you focus on causality and logic, you may have to say, "I don't know why the market moved."