One of the key problems with macro equity investing is that the link between earnings growth, market return and GDP growth are not often in lockstep. The chart shows that in the US earnings and market growth has been significantly higher than GDP growth, yet in many countries earnings and market growth have not been able to keep up with GDP growth. The link between GDP forecasting and market and earnings forecasting is not strong. You can be a great macro forecaster but that does not translate into making money in the equity markets.
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