"Now, I'm going to tell you a secret about trading. Making money trading is not about being right. It's about being right when everyone's wrong ... When people are wrong, their predictions are wrong. When people's predictions are wrong, their prices are wrong. And when prices are wrong we make millions."
- from The Trading Game by Gary Stevenson
Yes, this is the central paradox of trading. Being right is not enough. You must be right when everyone else is wrong. This is different from holding an index when you want everyone to be right. If you are a buyer, you need to have sellers. There may be a lot of reasons for those sellers, yet it seems the key is to have sellers with opposite opinions. Even with trend-following there needs to be others who have opposite opinions or opinions that come later than your own.
While the book is a sometimes good read, it may not be completely true. See Gary Stevenson claims to have been the best trader in the world. His old colleagues disagree
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