Monday, April 29, 2024

Cash is king, again? And stocks are overvalued

 


There is the image of old ladies and retires holding their dividend paying stocks as way to meet expenses. This should always be a good value; however, if you look at cash rates for T-bills there is not comparison. Sell those stocks and hold the risk-free rate at 5.25%. It makes even more sense if they're not going to be any Fed action in 2024. Get risky and go out a year or two and you still will do better than those dividend paying stocks. The only reason for holding stocks if you assume there will be positive gains that will make up for the rate shortfall. On a risk-adjusted basis, you should assume that this number will be greater than the rate difference. You should assume a volatility drag when calculating the geometric mean. 

This discussion does not even discuss the ratio of cash to dividends as a valuation indicator. We are at 2000 tech bubble levels and well beyond anything seen in 2008.

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