We have seen a near-term positive reversal for TLT, the long bond ETF, but what is surprising is the large increase in trading volume in October and early November. TLT was exceeding volume levels from the March 2020 debacle. Everyone wants to trade the long bond and get in on what some may expect is the big reversal.
Perhaps the market is normalizing but there is still significant upside potential in bonds if a recession materializes and the Fed decides to lower rates. Those are big ifs, but that is the bet many have been making.
Hat tip "Rudy Havenstein from A Havenstein Moment." <rudy@substack.com>
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