Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis contended that scientists “may be prejudiced purely because of their belief in a scientific theory or commitment to their own findings...Or prejudice may prevail in a hot scientific field, further undermining the predictive value of its research findings. Highly prejudiced stakeholders may even create a barrier that aborts efforts at obtaining and disseminating opposing results.”
“Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.”
While written ion 2005, the study by Ioannidis on why most published research finding are false is a tour de force on what to consider when conducting or reviewing research. We are driven to false conclusions based on our dependence on p-value and not on good clear thinking about what may be possible from research. "Bad" results may tell us something about what is really gapping in data. Too often research is driven by the prejudices of the scientist, the editors of journals and the general science community. If we see this problem with professional scientists, we should also expect it with finance professional.
Of course, finance should have a higher standard. For research to be effective in finance it must make money. False research will drive you into bankruptcy, yet that does not mean that this not a lot of pseudo-science based on stylized facts. Charts are presented. Numbers are given in figures and tables often without robust testing.
The true quant investor is skeptical of all tests, of all models, and all data. Use the data, form the models, run the tests but beware that mistakes will be made based on your biases, and it will cost you money.
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