Sunday, September 24, 2023

Investing reacts to narrative not facts

 

And in economics as in other sciences, you cannot get away from the aesthetics of human stories. Or, as Damon Runyon put it: " 'I thank you, Herbie, just the same,' I say, 'but I must do without your tip,' and with this I start walking away. 'Now,' Herbie says, 'wait a minute. A story goes with it,' he says. Well, of course, this is a different matter entirely. "

- D McCloskey Scientific American February 1995 "Once Upon a Time There Was a Theory"

What is it that Wall Street analysts do? They tell stories, and they are rewarded for telling better stories not making better forecasts. The forecast is a number or a probability, but that number does not stir action. It is the story. 

The Fed provides a number and a SEP forecast, but it is the story from Chairman Powell that moves markets. The retelling of the Fed story provides a new model and differentiates one analyst form another. 

The data are all the same. It is the narrative that makes for differences. Trades are based on differences in narrative.

See: Narrative and investing - Follow the facts

No comments: