Sunday, October 2, 2022

Group Dynamics and the Fed - If everyone is thinking alike, someone is not thinking


 "If everyone is thinking alike, someone is not thinking." - General George Patton 

What would Patton think about the consensus building at the Fed. Votes are often unanimous. There is seldom any dissension. 

Fed regional presidents seem to now come from other Fed banks or from the Fed staff. There is a culture that is based on getting along with the crowd. Fed officials seem to love to give speeches between FOMC meetings, yet few say anything controversial and in the case of regional Fed presidents even fewer focus on local conditions of their constituents. 

Many of the president are from the Fed system and did not get moved to Fed presidencies through questioning policy decisions. Most have never underwritten a loan or run a profit and loss for a business. They cannot appreciate community banking because they never were community bankers. They cannot appreciate job loss or hiring issues because they never had to hire from a diverse pool of workers. They never had to deal with regulation because they are the creators of regulation. Of course, regulation does not have costs when you don't have to bear the costs.

The Cleveland Fed president, Loretta Mester spoke at a MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy conference in Cambridge. Did the conference need her unique Midwest perspective? I don't think so. She spent her entire career at the Philadelphia Fed as an economist before moving to Cleveland. She is a competent economist and a good administrator, but does she offer an alternative perspective and a Cleveland regional view? 

Another Fed president states in her bio, "has charted a vision as a premier public service organization, dedicated to helping create unreserved opportunity for all Americans". Worthy goals, but is a local Fed bank a public service organization? Could this just be done better at the Board of Governors and eliminate any regional banking duties? 

Is it wrong to hire economists from within the Fed? No, but like any excess too many leads to wrong thinking. A few internal hires are good. All hires from within is bad for gaining diversity. 

There is noise when there is less agreement, but is it more important to have consensus with a wrong policy or conflict which may lead to the right policy?

Should we have more dissension about current Fed policy? what is the role of the regional banks when there is a major policy shift? 

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