Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Important questions and quantitative analysis ... Grappling with what is missing


"...almost all important questions are important precisely because they are not susceptible to quantitative answers." Arthur Schlesinger Jr "The Humanist Looks at Empirical Social Research" 1962 

Spoken like a true traditional historian, Schlesinger was arguing against the growing use of quantitative methods and the rise of cliometrics in the study of history. There is still a gulf between the traditional and scientific historians albeit much narrower than in the past. There is an acceptance that both quantitative and qualitative analysis are needed. 

There is a similar gulf between the traditional trader/ analyst and quants. I am a strong believer in quantitative methods in finance. Investments cannot be made without it, yet there is value with respecting the "humanist" position that alternative analysis is needed for focusing on that which is unexplained.  

Quantitative analysis is an important tool for finding the systematic or recurring behavior in markets, yet there is a significant amount of unexplained variation with any quantitative model. The big investment money is made through dissecting this unexplained variation. Still, because it is so difficult, it may make sense for many to avoid this work on the unexplained and only focus on the quantitative side. 

Providing answers to what is unexplained after what has been measured as repeatable is the true value-added from an analyst. While working on the quant modeling is rewarding, it still is critical to ponder the unexplained.

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