Using Ed Dolan's graph from his blog, we can see that 2014 to the present was just a move down in unemployment with little change in inflation. Now we are close to hitting an employment wall, so there is likely a movement up in inflation like we have seen in some other cycles. Inflationary expectations have already turned but should start to accelerate if inflation numbers further turn up.
What we do know is that as we have closed in on the natural rate of unemployment. There has been a significant increase in the inflation rate if you use the CPI and not the PCE. Albeit not the same elasticity as before, there is again a trade-off as the slack in the economy has been taken out. We are in a new world where fundamentals matter and old trade-offs that we thought were long dead are coming back to live because constraints are binding.
We can see that constraints are starting to bind for the Fed when we look at the combination of inflation and unemployment as a target. We are closing in on the bulls-eye; consequently, there will be increased likelihood of Fed action. If numbers are inside the bulls-eye, the Fed will act. Numbers outside the tight bulls-eye, the Fed will wait.
From Ed Dolan's econ blog