Monday, August 1, 2016
July returns - All is good in post BREXIT world?
In a post-BREXIT world with slow global growth, the word for July was "Risk-on!". Uncertainty about BREXIT has certainly not been resolved albeit the economic world has not come to an end. The Fed is again on hold and continues to tease the markets with the idea that maybe next meeting it will raise rates. The rest of the central banks continue to generate more liquidity although Japan has take a step back to determine some new policy mix. Since the world is not as bad as some would have thought, it is a risk-on world. However, the rationality of supply and demand seems to apply to commodities where markets with higher inventory levels sold-off.
Equity returns were up across the board with a strong focus on small cap, emerging markets, and value. With central banks not raising rates, bonds marched higher although not to the same degree as equities. Year to date, it is still a bond world.
While there are growing doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy, investors still seem to be believers in the simple premise that no central bank tightening is always a reason to celebrate with risk-taking.