Saturday, June 18, 2016
Things that make me stay up at night this week ... cash hoarding, BREXIT, etc...
What should investors expect in a negative interest rate world? Hoarding of cash should pick up because the rate of return is an attractive zero percent. Even the big boys are starting to get in on this trade. The evidence of large bills as a percent of cash in circulation is mixed with respect to this question, but investors big and small are thinking about how to hold more cash.
BREXIT is not legally binding, so a exit vote may not mean anything if parliament decides not to act on the vote. Nothing will be resolved, but there will be more uncertainty.
GDP may be revised down for the last ten years and future does not look so bright. No wonder rates are so low.
Flood of speculative money in commodities. This ay not be like the super-cycle period, but there is more interest in these markets.