Monday, April 4, 2016
Global macro themes on one page
The major theme for the second quarter will once again be focused on the Fed and rate increases. A market-dependent Fed creates a feedback loop between market prices and Fed action. It seems the Fed is closely watching market behavior and will err on the side of caution if there is any sell-off or price disruption in markets. The market-dependent Fed has supported emerging markets and a risk-on equity environment. The markets have to read the thoughts of this dovish Fed and determine when the next rate increase based on any market feedback.