FINANCIAL SECTOR THINKS IT'S ABOUT READY TO RUIN WORLD AGAIN
- Deutsche Bank and financial sector CDS spreads have exploded higher to levels similar to Financial Crisis;
- COCO contingency bonds have significantly fallen in price based on the belief that banks will not be able to refinance;
- Equity sell-off moving to bear market and is global in nature;
- Rates signal economic slowdown around globe albeit not with inverted yield curves;
- Gold has moved significantly higher against central bank negative rate policies;
- Forward looking view - Market prices are forward expectations of the real economy and it is sending a signal of a major slowdown with banks being in trouble.
- Over-reaction to past prices view - Market prices are in a negative feedback loop which is over-reacting to some slower macro data. Selling has begot more selling but the macro data suggests this is an over-reaction. Look for a reversal in price data.
- Combination story or RO/RO view - The world is focused on changing risk-taking and right now we are in risk-off mode. There is heightened risk in the markets and economy. The markets have reacted to this risk or uncertainty information. Current monetary policies are confusing. Macro data are mixed.The central bank policy of negative rates is negative for banks and not as effective as previously thought a few years ago. Hence, there has been a sell-off which has changed risk perceptions. We are in a risk-off environment and policy cannot change this view.