Unfortunately, the concept of the natural rate of interest is not easy to measure. Discussion about the level has declined since spring even though it is the key issue for the central bank. Assume that we could measure the natural rate, it seems as though this should be an important input in the decision process for the Fed.
The natural model that is often cited by the Fed was developed at the San Francisco Fed by Thomas Laubach and John Williams and has recently been updated as of mid November and shows a -.09 rate. This is one of the highest readings since 2012, but it is still in negative territory. The trend has not abated and has been declining almost uninterrupted for 15 years. The peak in real rates was in 1981. This natural rate decline has been occurring around the world.
The graphs are from the update of the Laubach and Williams work.