Sunday, January 25, 2015

Following the crowd with COT traders

There is always a great desire to look at new measures of market sentiment. The CFTC commitment of traders (COT) has been mined significantly for years to find out what is the sentiment of hedgers, speculators, and small traders. Can the COT forecast price moves? The evidence is mixed,  but it does provide reinforcing information of current market tops and bottoms. It may confirm what is happening with prices. 

There is a new look at this data using the net long and short number of levered traders in the market. Follow the crowd and not the weight of positions. I have mixed feelings on the usefulness of this measure. It does not account for the number of dollar voters, just the number of voters.  Still, this measure seems like it is worth further investigation. When the crowd is moving, it is worth taking a look at where they are going.


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