We had a negative first quarter growth in GDP and there has been no movement in the leading or coincident indicators from the Conference Board. In fact, they have not moved much over the last few years. A question is whether these indicators are still relevant. If you look at some of the components of the leading indicators like money supply, stock market, and terms spreads, you could argue that they are all manipulated by the government.
For all of the uncertainty in the markets, it is not showing up in these indicators.
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