Sunday, May 11, 2014

Demographics - the only headwind that counts



The book Demographic Cliff by Harry Dent pushes the idea demographics as a headwinds to economic growth to an extreme, but it is a compelling case. It does a great job of explaining how demographics effects consumption and savings over generational cycles. If you want to understand why housing prices are rising at different times look at demographics. If you want to understand why some consumer goods are in demand look to demographics. Savings rates - demographics. Commodity prices - demographics. 

You may not get rich following this approach but there is a good link between demand, prices, and demographics which create a cyclical push in markets. His conclusion is that demographics will lead to deflation cliffs and populations age and demand changes.  It is a chilling tale that will change the world. Sometimes Dent takes these views to extremes, but it is worth discussing the implications of his thesis. There is not much truly new here, but his charts present the information is a very clear fashion. Governments should be preparing for the cliff; however, it is unlikely that they have read this book or they are just choosing to ignore the problem.

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