Monday, June 18, 2012

BRICs hit the wall

The term BRICs has been around for over a decade and has been the poster child of emerging market resurgence; however, it is not clear that BRICs will be the solution to the global growth problem. The BRIC story has changed for the worse.

  • China is now seeing growth that is closer to &.5Z% and not the double digits from the last few years.  
  • India has seen a currency devaluation and growth that is closer to 5%. Current growth has slowed to 5.6%. There have also been questions on the quality of government and whether it can solve problems to ensure a higher growth rate like China
  • Brazil is tracking with a growth rate that is closer to 3%. Industrial production has actually turned negative this year and showed a -2.9% yoy for April.
  • Russia is negatively affected by the falling oil prices. It is falling into the same behavior as other commodity driven export economies. It growth rate last year was 4.3%, but the latest industrial production is at 3.7% yoy for May. 
These are not bad numbers, but they are not the numbers associated with special emerging market economies. 

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