Wednesday, May 23, 2012

We are bad at probability... the language problem

We humans are terrible at dealing with probability. We are not merely bad at it, but seem hardwired to be incompetent, in spite of the fact that we encounter innumerable circumstances every day which depend on accurate probabilistic calculations for our well being. This incompetence is reflected in our language, in which the common words used to convey likelihood are "probably" and "usually" — vaguely implying a 50% to 100% chance. Going beyond crude expression requires awkwardly geeky phrasing, such as "with 70% certainty," 




theoretical physicist
So how do we use the right language for probability when talking about investments? This seems to be one of the most difficult problems with discussing investment decisions. How is uncertainty conveyed to others? What is a likely scenario? There is much work done on looking at the mathematics of uncertainty, bu the language is still the most important method of providing information on risk. One could argue that our ability to even place this information on paper is limited. The visual display of information may be in the form of a volatility but this does not give much precision on how uncertain choices. 

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