Monday, January 16, 2012
Refiners follow global growth
Oil refiners are still a local business. If there is a slowdown in the OECD growth rates, there will be increases in idle capacity. All of the new capacity growth will be in the emerging markets to meet their demand. The rationalization of refining market will lead to future volatility if there is an increase in growth. Unlike crude, it is harder to move refined products around the globe especially if margins are weak. The movement of product means that there can be increasing volatility as shortages or bottle-necks will create price spikes.