With all of the geopolitical and earthquake events, the dollar has not been the focus of many investors, yet it has now reached a three year low. We are at pre-crash levels and little expectation of turn around. The only dollar gains come when there is a crisis in another country like the Greece or Ireland events.
There are strong dolalr headewinds. There is less flight to quality into the dollar. There is no yield advnatage with holding dollars. The US is energy dependent and we are facing a oil price shock. The deficit problems are real and there has been no leadership on this issue. The rest of the world, especially emerging markets, still looks like good long-term bet even if there is higher inflation and a slowdown in growth momentum.
There is not a strong dollar story to be presented at this time.
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