Thursday, July 22, 2010

Not your normal macro trader - Jm Rogers on GDP

Jim Rogers: I do not pay attention to that sort of thing for the following reasons:
  1. The numbers are backward looking;
  2. They are always revised;
  3. Every government has different methodologies; and,
  4. Most governments have no clue so they just make up the numbers.
From Money Game

I cannot argue with Jim Roger's view. The delay in GDP number sis significant so you cannot place a lot of stock in them. They are subject to revision which can be significant. The OECD has made progress in standardizing the numbers, but some governments are better than others. The no clue argument is harsh, but knowing how the numbers are made is like sausage-making, you don't want to know. That is why there has to be a focus on real-time macro data which is the hottest topic for macro forecasters.

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