Tuesday, November 24, 2009

A shift in thought by CFA's - no longer believe in efficient markets

The British CFA recently asked members for the first time whether they trusted in "market efficiency" - and discovered more than two-thirds of respondents no longer believed market prices reflect all available information. More startling, 77 per cent of the group "strongly" or "very strongly" disagreed that investors behaved "rationally" - in apparent defiance of the "wisdom of crowds" idea that has driven investment theory.

from FT

So what do they believe? This is serious if after 3+ years of testing the CFA holder do not believe win the foundations of finance. Should the CFA ask for respondents to give back their certificates? How do you do finance if market prices can move anywhere?

Clearly, the extreme versions of efficient markets were misplaced and only useful as a simplifying assumption, but it would be difficult to throw out the concept without an alternative view.

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