Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Leading indicators all pointing up

OECD leading indicators have turned up to create synchronous global business cycle.

Table from CIMB-GK and OECD CLI index. he leading indicators are showing steep increase especially for EU area. The US is the laggard relative to the G3 and emerging markets.

Duration of OECD Leading Indicator cycles
Duration (months) Period
Trough to peak 29 Sep 1970 to Feb 1973
Peak to trough 23 Feb 1973 to Jan 1975
Trough to peak 46 Jan 1975 to Nov 1978
Peak to trough 44 Nov 1978 to Jul 1982
Trough to peak 17 Jul 1982 to Dec 1983
Peak to trough 24 Dec 1983 to Dec 1985
Trough to peak 35 Dec 1985 to Nov 1988
Peak to trough 48 Nov 1988 to Nov 1992
Trough to peak 22 Nov 1992 to Sep 1994
Peak to trough 12 Sep 1994 to Sep 1995
Trough to peak 23 Sep 1995 to Aug 1997
Peak to trough 14 Aug 1997 to Oct 1998
Trough to peak 16 Oct 1998 to Feb 2000
Peak to trough 19 Feb 2000 to Sep 2001
Trough to peak 8 Sep 2001 to May 2002
Peak to trough 10 May 2002 to Mar 2003
Trough to peak 12 Mar 2003 to Mar 2004
Peak to trough 15 Mar 2004 to Jun 2005
Trough to peak 23 Jun 2005 to May 2007
Peak to trough 21 May 2007 to Feb 2009
Trough to peak 6 Mar 2009 to Aug 2009
Averages since 1970
Peak to trough 23
Trough to peak 23

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