Table from CIMB-GK and OECD CLI index. he leading indicators are showing steep increase especially for EU area. The US is the laggard relative to the G3 and emerging markets.
Duration of OECD Leading Indicator cycles | ||
Duration (months) | Period | |
Trough to peak | 29 | Sep 1970 to Feb 1973 |
Peak to trough | 23 | Feb 1973 to Jan 1975 |
Trough to peak | 46 | Jan 1975 to Nov 1978 |
Peak to trough | 44 | Nov 1978 to Jul 1982 |
Trough to peak | 17 | Jul 1982 to Dec 1983 |
Peak to trough | 24 | Dec 1983 to Dec 1985 |
Trough to peak | 35 | Dec 1985 to Nov 1988 |
Peak to trough | 48 | Nov 1988 to Nov 1992 |
Trough to peak | 22 | Nov 1992 to Sep 1994 |
Peak to trough | 12 | Sep 1994 to Sep 1995 |
Trough to peak | 23 | Sep 1995 to Aug 1997 |
Peak to trough | 14 | Aug 1997 to Oct 1998 |
Trough to peak | 16 | Oct 1998 to Feb 2000 |
Peak to trough | 19 | Feb 2000 to Sep 2001 |
Trough to peak | 8 | Sep 2001 to May 2002 |
Peak to trough | 10 | May 2002 to Mar 2003 |
Trough to peak | 12 | Mar 2003 to Mar 2004 |
Peak to trough | 15 | Mar 2004 to Jun 2005 |
Trough to peak | 23 | Jun 2005 to May 2007 |
Peak to trough | 21 | May 2007 to Feb 2009 |
Trough to peak | 6 | Mar 2009 to Aug 2009 |
Averages since 1970 | ||
Peak to trough | 23 | |
Trough to peak | 23 |
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