Monday, August 31, 2009

Trifecta on manufacturing with surveys

The Chicago PMI rose to 50.
Milwaukee NAPM up to 56.
Dallas Fed manufacturing activity down only -9.1 versus expectation of down -14.

These numbers are following a similar pattern found in other countries and is consistent with a recovery. The Chicago PMI is above 50 for the first time in a almost a year. Milwaukee NAPM is at early 2008 levels and the Dallas fed index is at levels similar to the end of 2007. Some of this rally in manufacturing is associated with auto manufacturing. The "clunkers" program worked to give a shot to consumers last week and manufacturers this week. Unfortunately, these are often temporary gains that will not last after the program is over.

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