Monday, August 13, 2007

Why isn't gold a safe haven?

Uncertainty is high. The dollar has declined. Stocks are off their highs. Volatility is up. Gold is down.

This does not make sense for those who have played the gold bull story. Gold is believed to be a safe asset during times of turmoil, but it has failed the market this time. Gold has moved down from its high of around $688/oz to the just under $670. The price actually hit a low over the last thirty days of just under $654. While it is still early in this credit crunch, gold has not been the place where funds have moved. It could be the lower inflationary expectations is driving the price down, but that type of thinking is just trying to fit the events with the specialized facts. This should have been a period of new highs for gold. While we do not have information on central bank gold sales which can move the market, the barbaric metal is just not serving the purpose of a safe asset.

So what is a safe asset during the current times? Cash is expected to decline in yield and it is not clear which currency will maintain its store of value, so it still seems like there is a place for gold if only some investors thought so.

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