Economics is not an exact science, it's a combination of an art and elements of science. And that’s almost the first and last lesson to be learned about economics: that, in my judgment, we are not converging toward exactitude, but we're improving our databases and our ways of reasoning about them.
- Paul Samuelson
Every time we try to make a forecast, we run into the problem that economics isn’t an exact science. There is an art to looking for and weighting different factors. These factor weights also change as economic agents' behavior changes.
We are improving our data or at least have more it, yet data needs analysis and data science without theory can only sort or rephrase the data but not always providing useful insights. Machine learing has pushed the boundaries of data analysis but that does not mean we are better interpreters at understanding the causal links within the economy.
No comments:
Post a Comment