University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is now at the lowest level in 40 years. I could go back further. It is the lowest level ever recorded, as listed in the FRED database. Worse than the Volcker recession and the double-digit recession. Sentiment has fallen since the pandemic. The consumer confidence survey data, which goes back even further to 1959, shows the same pattern. There is a confidence problem in the US.
The Conference Board numbers are better, yet the overall direction is the same. So, even if you choose the best survey, there is still a problem. This will carry over to economic behavior, yet it is not clear when or how, but the general trend is negative. Who or what is going to provide a jolt to sentiment? It does not seem to be on the horizon, and because of that, it is hard to see strong economic growth over the next year.
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