Japanese 10-year JGB yields are now 2.34, the highest this century. An end to loose monetary policy, continued loose fiscal policy with the expectation of a tax cut, the "Takaichi Trade", and persistent inflation that is currently at 2.9% means that there is a strong reason to see yields move even higher. The rising JGB rate is having an impact worldwide as money starts to flow back to Japan. Now, it is hard to say this is a complete reversal when real rates are still negative, but the global financial landscape is changing, putting pressure on Treasuries and rates in other countries.
"Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views" focuses on current economic and finance issues, changes in market structure and the hedge fund industry as well as how to be a better decision-maker in the global macro investment space.
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
JGB rates starting to matter to the rest of the world
Japanese 10-year JGB yields are now 2.34, the highest this century. An end to loose monetary policy, continued loose fiscal policy with the expectation of a tax cut, the "Takaichi Trade", and persistent inflation that is currently at 2.9% means that there is a strong reason to see yields move even higher. The rising JGB rate is having an impact worldwide as money starts to flow back to Japan. Now, it is hard to say this is a complete reversal when real rates are still negative, but the global financial landscape is changing, putting pressure on Treasuries and rates in other countries.
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