The chart above is the gold attribution model for UBS. Their chief strategist notes that the residuals have gotten larger since the Ukraine-Russia War. The argument is that the buying of gold has not followed the classic link between the dollar, real rates, and uncertainty. The residuals have gotten larger and have been on one side. The residuals indicate that gold is being driven by other factors, and the link to fundamentals has weakened. If we do not have a strong reason for the delinking, then there is reason to believe that gold will mean-revert.
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