Tuesday, March 11, 2025

The big international rotation is starting

 


There is a change in the global equity environment. The US has been a market leader based on strong relative growth driven by strong relative fiscal policy, but that is changing based on three factors. One, the policy uncertainty and overall volatility is growing in the US. Any measure of risk is at heightened levels. Two, there is strong push for stimulus in the EU and China. Three, the tech boom or bubble seems to be reversing. 

Clearly, the decline in tech, a different rotation, will have an impact on US stock indices, but there seems to be a sentiment reversal concerning the US. Outside of Trump uncertainty there is the key policy issue that US fiscal policy will likely be dampened which will be a headwind for a US economy that is stressed over uncertainty. 

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