Saturday, January 22, 2022

Is this what a return to normalcy looks like in the stock market?



Bear markets and corrections are just numbers, respectively 20% and 10% declines. While we have not hit those levels for key benchmarks, there is a new market regime. It could be a classified as a risk-off environment. It can also be called a reaction to a more aggressive Fed. It is a return to normalcy after strong returns in 2021 lifted by both fiscal and monetary policy. Less fiscal stimulus and Fed QT with anticipated rate increases make an adjustment to more normal returns seems likely. Valuations will come down and longer-term returns will see annualized numbers consistent with less speculative excess.

The SPY ETF benchmark has peaked. The Russell 2000 broader market has moved to negative returns for the last year, and the froth in the IPO markets as measured by the IPO ETF has moved this benchmark back to levels consistent with the SPX index. You may not like it, but it is a return to market normalcy. However, there is still a threat to something much worse.

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