Inflation forecasts vary because there are different implicit models used by the forecasters. Put differently, different groups have different inflation narratives or stories. This is what makes markets move. As narrative change, markets change.
The stories matter with determining the forecast. These forecasts are rational because they are based on a set of rational explanations, yet all forecasts cannot be right at some end date. You can have rational beliefs but still be wrong.
A recent study (Inflation Narratives) looks at inflation forecasts and finds that there are significant difference in views especially between households and experts. experts place more value on demand factors and less on non-market factors.
These differences show up in one and five-year inflation forecasts. Households have higher forecasts than managers and experts. This issue is not trivial because it shows a dislocation between the real and financial economy. Some group will be wrong, and mistakes will create market adjustments - real and financial.
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