Think about the form of investment arguments

 

- From N Goodman 1965 Fact, Fiction, and Forecast

quoted from Counterfactual definition in Palgrave Dictionary of Economics D McCloskey 

All the above are essential equivalent statements, yet many analysts will say or act as if they are different. It is important to classify the type of statements used for the basis of argument. By stripping down arguments to their primal relationship and thinking through the choices of description, better tests and conclusions can be drawn.

It is critical when discussing a concept, especially when there is money on the line, that there is not only precision in language but precision in the structure of the argument. Forecast precision starts with assumption and argument precision. Faulty logic will always cost investors returns in the long run even if luck prevails in the short run.