Tuesday, September 22, 2026

There is more than one type of surprise





 Surprise, there is more than one type:

  • A bolt from the blue
  • An issue is recognized, but the direction of the expectation is wrong 
  • You know what will happen, approximately when it will happen, and in what order, but the timing is off
  • The expected duration of the event proves wrong 

Need to think about the quality or characteristics of a surprise to better deal with it as an organization. Not all surprises are the same, so the response will be different.


Fimrs need to be HRO - highly resilient organizations



Better risk management requires mindful organizing that creates high-reliability organizations. Mindful organizing develops decision-making processes to protect against high volatility, chaotic markets, and surprises. 

This post synthesizes the key points of Managing the Unexpected: Sustained Performance in a Complex World by Karl Weick and Kathleen Sutcliffe. 

The mindful organization focuses on the firm’s coordination problem. The core problem of any firm, and its reason for existence, is to coordinate activities to increase efficiency and lower costs. Yet coordination is not easy. There is good and bad coordination. According to Barry Turner, “organizations achieve a minimal level of coordination by persuading their decision-makers to agree that they will all neglect the same kinds of consideration when they make decisions.” 

A good organization can adapt to surprises and be resilient. A highly resilient organization (HRO) should act through what the authors classify by the simple acronym as FSORE - failure, simplification, operations, resilience, and expertise.

Mindful organizations look for continuity with specific focus on some key principles:

  • A preoccupation with failure - Work hard to detect failures and pay attention to anomalies, information that does not fit the normal; do not normalize; anticipate mistakes or show institutional wariness of mistakes and anomalies; realize that knowledge is incomplete and organize doubt of what may be occurring. There is a tendency to exaggerate the best case and most optimistic view, so be a skeptic. 
  • A reluctance to simplify - Clarification does not mean simplifying in a complex world. Accept that complexity is a process and part of the environment. Simplifying tasks or explanations will cause you to miss important details. 
  • A sensitivity to operations - Focus on the work itself, what is actually being done, to protect the system and keep the work flowing. A breakdown in operations will be costly. There should be an integration map, so everyone knows how processes are conducted in a failure or crisis. This requires strong situation awareness. 
  • A commitment to resilience - Maintain key functions during a crisis or failure. Manage and anticipate the unexpected, so you create resilience, not just expect it. A response to surprises doesn’t happen without training to account for them.
  • A deference to expertise - CHAOS - “the chief has arrived on scene”. To avoid chaos, organizations need to defer to experts or those dealing with an issue in real time. 

Adaptive managing from Gary Klein should follow the simple format - STICC:

  • The situation - What problem or situation are we facing? 
  • The task - What task has to be undertaken?
  • The intent - What is the intent of our actions for this task?
  • The concerns - What concerns are associated with this problem and solution?
  • The calibration - What are we missing or need to adjust given this situation, task, and intent? 
Organizations need to think beyond the measurement of risk and the models for valuation and focus on forming better organizations.


Monday, September 21, 2026

The demand for credit - both public and private

 


Most investors are concerned about the size of government debt. They should be. Deficits are out of control, with interest pushing debt-to-GDP higher as the cost of past excesses. Primary debt remains high with no controls in sight, yet the problem is broader. 

There is a strong demand for private capital given the strong increases in global capex. The private sector is competing with public markets for savings, and the cost of capital is increasing. Technology is showing strong capex, but the commodity sector is also demanding capital. Beyond energy, there is a strong need for many metals, which is finally leading to more capex after the decline in the aftermath of the commodity supercycle in 2008.

The competition for capital is real, but it is not clear that public markets are a better credit. 


What is the fixed income market telling us?

 


Fed Chairman Warsh stated that he will not provide forward guidance. The fixed income markets should do their own signalling. The combined weights of bond market participants should tell others what they are thinking. The market is speaking, and it is telling us that rates are going higher. The spread between the 2-year Treasury market and the EFFR is widening, suggesting rates will rise for a longer period. The market is expecting the Fed to raise rates to fight inflation. There are no Fed rate cuts expected as desired by the President. 

Nevertheless, we have to place the current rate increases in context. It is a return to normal after the QE and ZIRP era. That does not mean the economy will not feel the pain. The cost of capital is ,rising, which means projects will be rejected because they will not be financially attractive. 

When the extraordinary continues for too long, it becomes normal, and a return to the true normal becomes abnormal.