The investment world is coming to an end! - Not yet

 

"Most of the time, the end of the world doesn't happen."

    - Howard Marks, Sept. 2008

Investment talking heads will often describe events in terms of doom and gloom. The world is coming to end. Forecasters only receive attention by being gloomy Events are unprecedented or never seen before with far-reaching implications. Those predicting better time are discounted. Those that disagree with gloom are often viewed as naive. 

The reality is that markets and the economy adapt; nevertheless, adaption is not painless. This is the process of creative destruction. There will be losers, but there will also be winners. This does not mean that there are not real costs with gloom events, but economies adapt. Adaptation does not mean that there is a return to the past. Adaption may lead to a very different world which is not liked or immediately accepted. Government and regulation attempts to smooth adaption and create an environment that is acceptable to the most with protections for all. 

Money is made not through accepting doom but thinking through the implications of negative thinking and what can be done to reverse or avoid the situation. Scenario or what-if thinking looks for ways to exploit pessimism which is discussed but not acted upon. For every doom scenario, there is a possible solution response.