“To characterize the thinking style of superforecasters, Tetlock uses the phrase ‘perpetual beta,’ a term used by computer programmers for a program that is not meant to be released in a final version but that is endlessly used, analyzed, and improved. Tetlock finds that ‘the strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.’ As he puts it, ‘What makes them so good is less what they are than what they do—the hard work of research, the careful thought and self-criticism, the gathering and synthesizing of other perspectives, the granular judgments and relentless updating.’ They like a particular cycle of thinking: ‘try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again.’”
- Daniel Kahneman in Noise
One of the most important investment books over the last decade is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. (See Superforecasters - What Does It Take To Be Great? for more details.) Dan Kahneman recognizes the important skills associated with superforecasters. It is not about being the smartest guy in the room. It is the process of constant questioning and criticizing your work to get better forecasts. It is not just practice but real time evaluation so that as new information comes in underly assumptions and conclusions are reassessed. This process is not easy, but it leads to better results.
No comments:
Post a Comment