"As a wise macro manager once said, it’s usually 3-4 big trades a year that drive 90% of your returns”
“Every macro process begins with a liquidity framework”
“Equities don’t suddenly break because of over-valuation, they typically break when liquidity is tightened”
“The rally in equities is constantly in question; e.g. at 1250 in S&P, there was no workout in Europe -- Greece was going to default and there wasn’t enough capital in the European banking system to withstand it”
“Certain years and certain cycles favor trading over investing, in others it’s the photographic negative."
- Goldman's Tony Pasquariello quips
Good investment advice can often be boiled down to short phrases. I agree that big returns for macro managers come through just a few big trades and not grinding out gains through many small trades. A macro process is always based on knowing the direction of liquidity. Equity breaks on tightening liquidity is always a useful guide. I have almost never seen a time when a wall of worry wasn't present in equities. Some quips may just be observation; however, the best will have some predictive value.
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