Saturday, August 14, 2021

"Not priced in market" - Phrasing just says you don't agree with market

We constantly hear the phrase that some event or information "has not been priced into market". For some will say, "higher inflation is not priced in bonds", or "equities have not priced in tapering". It is often said with a sense of authority when the phrase is just saying that your view of market value does not match the current market price. You could just as easily say you believe the market should be higher or lower although that may not seem as authoritative. 

It is important to be clear that your view is different than the weight of opinion embedded in prices. Everything, through the funds committed, is priced in markets; however, the weight of opinion may not be correct about what prices should be at some future date. 

If there is no articulated difference between your view and the market, you are not presenting anything new or unique to the market. You agree with average opinion. Without a difference of opinion, you are only providing commentary on facts and market behavior. The strength or value of your opinion is based on the dollars committed and a function of risks taken. 

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