Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Using the monetary bazooka - What do we have to reload?


"If you have a bazooka in your pocket and people know it, you probably won't have to use it." - Hank Paulson Treasury Secretary during the 2008 Financial Crisis

Jerome Powell took the bazooka out of his pocket and started firing. The question is whether he has any more ammunition after lowering rates to zero, increasing repo lines, reopening Treasury and mortgage purchases, and initiating a commercial paper facility. He has used almost all of his power although there are further regulatory actions the Fed can employ to facilitate lending and liquidity. 

Markets under a highly uncertain environment may not respond immediately to this stimulus. Lending is based on ability of the borrower to generate cash flow as well as rates. The Fed can reduce the cost of borrowing and provide facilities to improve liquidity. Funds should flow but there still has to be the animal spirits of optimism for lending to occur. 

There can be quibbling about using too much too early, but in a potential crisis waiting is luxury and may only force the problem to be larger in the future. Like emergency triage, there is a chance we can create long-term harm in an effort to provide immediate relief. Right now, the focus is on macro risk minimization.

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