Where is the new oil supply going to come from?

Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. Overall growth in supply – by 9.5 Mb/d in 2010-20, or by 11%.

Rising supply should come primarily from OPEC, where output is projected to rise by 5.8 Mb/d. The largest increments of new OPEC supply will come from NGLs, as well as conventional crude in Iraq.

Non-OPEC supply will rise due primarily to strong growth in the Americas -- from US and Brazilian biofuels, Canadian oil sands, Brazilian deepwater, and US shale oil (which combined provide growth of about 4.5 Mb/d). The US and Brazil contribute almost 75% to the global growth in biofuels production over the decade.

Outside OPEC and non-conventional production growth in Americas, we expect the rest of non-OPEC to see a decline in production by 0.8 Mb/d; without growth in non-OPEC biofuel this decline amounts to ~1Mb/d.

This overall decline would be a combination of rather different trends across the non-OPEC world: a significant decline in Europe (-1.5 Mb/d), a steady expansion in FSU (+0.9 Mb/d), and smaller changes in Asia Pacific (-0.3) and non-OPEC Africa (+0.2). 

- BP estimates

The world will still be dependent on OPEC and in particular the growth of Iraqi oil production. The US may gain more independence but the rest of the world will be concerned about matters in the Middle East.