Thursday, July 19, 2012

Negative yields start to take hold

What do all of these countries have in common?
Switzerland
Denmark
Germany
Austria
Netherlands
Finland

They all have negative interest rates for 2-year bonds. Longer-term yields are also below the inflation rate, so they have negative real yields. Debt holders are being punished by low yields. Punished may be harsh language because most of low rate environment is associated with a flight to safety, but if the ECB lowers rates to zero and there is a policy uncertainty, the demand for safety leads to extremes. The demand for the high yielding Treasuries seems almost natural. The yield advantage of Treasuries versus EU rates is high. This is not a sustainable environment for fixed income but there is nothing on the horizon to change the dynamics.

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