There will be no magic gain in
manufacturing numbers because it cannot happen. The US economic environment is
poor with new orders down over 12 percent. Net exports are down 6%. Manufacturing
activity is down 3.8 percent. The world economy is slowing, so there is not
going to be a bigger pie for manufacturing sales. Manufacturing numbers around the
world are all down. The only recent exception has been the UK which has seen significant
sterling decline given their continued use of quantitative easing. The dollar
has again been climbing so there is no gain from lower exchange rates.
Finally,
technology has been the great destroyer of jobs for those who are hard to
employ. The economic studies have been very clear. Most of the decline in
manufacturing over the last decade has been through productivity gains
associated with increases in the use of technology. There are jobs with this technology
but it is not going to those who have strong backs and poor education.
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