The recession began in December 2007 . The NBER business cycle dating committee made this determination in December 2008. On April 12, a NBER press release stated that they reaffirmed to beginning of the recession but stated that they believed that it was too early to declare the trough in the business cycle. We know the committee wants to be certain of its opinion but the evidence seems strong and the committee clearly does not have a consensus that we are in a recession. For more on the dating procedures of the committee, see the NBER website.
Some members of the committee already believe that the trough was hit in the second or third quarter of 2009. Jacob Frankel and Chairman Bob Hall fall in that camp. Robert Gordon of Northwestern has actually dissented with the committee and says that the recession clearly end in the second or at the latest third quarter of 2009.
If the committee delays, do the markets care? They should not. Certainly the stock market is acting like we are in a recovery, but still there is important news when the non-biased NBER sets the trough in business cycle for discussions of new policy initiatives.
Some members of the committee already believe that the trough was hit in the second or third quarter of 2009. Jacob Frankel and Chairman Bob Hall fall in that camp. Robert Gordon of Northwestern has actually dissented with the committee and says that the recession clearly end in the second or at the latest third quarter of 2009.
If the committee delays, do the markets care? They should not. Certainly the stock market is acting like we are in a recovery, but still there is important news when the non-biased NBER sets the trough in business cycle for discussions of new policy initiatives.
No comments:
Post a Comment